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Deep dives.

The mechanics behind the market.

Two separate bar charts, both starting at zero. Deribit BTC DVOL fell from 38.60 at the September 16 7am PT hourly close to 34.25 at the same close September 17, a decline of 4.35 index points. DVOL measures 30-day annualized implied volatility. The U.S. Treasury two-year nominal par yield rose from 4.67% on September 15 to 4.74% September 16, an increase of 7 basis points. The panels use different units and observation windows; they do not establish causality. Sources checked September 17 morning.

Why lower Bitcoin volatility does not mean stronger demand

September 17, 2026
The Fed raised both bounds of its target range by 0.25 percentage points: from 3.50–3.75% to 3.75–4.00%, effective September 17, 2026. The vote was 12–0. This is a policy-range comparison, not an observed market interest rate or a Bitcoin price forecast.

Why a Fed rate hike and reserve management can coexist

September 16, 2026
September 15, 2026 comparison. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net flows changed from a $13.2 million outflow on September 11 to a $159.9 million inflow on September 14, from Farside. Signed bars share a zero baseline and use USD millions. A separate panel shows $310.42 billion in active USD stablecoin supply at peg and a matched-assets seven-day change of +0.074%, from DefiLlama. Sources checked September 15, 7:05–7:06 a.m. Pacific. The panels use separate daily-flow and weekly-supply windows.

Why Bitcoin can fall while ETF inflows rise

September 15, 2026
Conceptual channels connecting policy, financial conditions, risk appetite and Bitcoin. Effects are uncertain.

How rates reach Bitcoin

September 14, 2026
September 10 and 11, 2026 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net flows: minus $282.7M and minus $13.2M. Daily flows differ from stablecoin supply. Source: Farside.

ETF flows ≠ stablecoin supply

September 14, 2026
A currency conversion can change the picture without changing local supply.

Reading liquidity charts

CrossCurrent Markets · September 13, 2026
A higher market value does not reveal how much cash entered.

Market value ≠ money flow

CrossCurrent Markets · September 13, 2026